Showing posts with label Fundamental. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fundamental. Show all posts

Friday, October 8, 2010

Automated Stock Trading Software Can Bridge The Divide Between Fundamental Analysis And Chartering

Perhaps the most important attribute of the canny investor is a sense of timing - knowing when to purchase the stocks and when to sell them. We all know the old saying "Buy Low and Sell High", but how do we know when the price is low so that we can buy; or when the price is high, so we can sell?

There have been many theories and techniques which have supposedly guided the investor over the years. Traditionally, these theories fall into two general categories: the Fundamental Analysis and Chartering. Fundamental Analysis is all about understanding the nature of the underlying asset so that the investor can make an informed investment decision. The analyst will pours over the company's financial statements, analyze the profitability of the market the company operates in, and make an assessment of the calibe of the management team.

Chartering - or technical analysis - takes a different approach. There is absolutely no focus on the company itself. Instead the investor analyses the movement of the stock price over a period of time. The theory is that "everything is factored into the price", and the stock price alone will predict the Buy and Sell signals.

Investors have traditionally adopted one of these two approaches. But now, with the advent of increased computer processing power and intelligent algorithms, the investor can get the best of both worlds by using Automated Stock trading software.

Some examples of Automated Stock trading software packages are StockPicker from Investing Systems Network or OmniTrader. Additional information can be found at http://www.autostocktrading.com.

Automated Stock trading software enables the investor to robotically monitor the market for Buy and Sell signals, as per the Chartering model. But it also accommodates the Fundamental Analysts by evaluating the company behind the stock using its proprietary algorithms and "fuzzy logic". Best of all, it then executes the trades when all the conditions are met!




Russell Clark owns and operates the website AutoStockTrading.com

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Sunday, September 19, 2010

Why Fundamental Analysis & Technical Analysis Are The Same

For years, I have been asked this same question over and over again, "Which is better, fundamental analysis or technical analysis?".

For decades, analysts of one camp argued about the ineffectiveness of the other and provided reasons and evidences how one method of analysis can be used at the exclusion of the other. For decades, fundamental analysts; people who dig deep into the business model and financial statements of companies, gave proof to the ineffectiveness of technical analysis. For decades too have technical analysts; people who read charts to find trends, patterns and investor behaviors, gave proof to the ineffectiveness of fundamental analysis.

Suddenly, it feels like there are 2 different worlds existing simultaneously, talking about the same stocks, same markets with views that are supposed to have nothing to do with one another. How is that possible?

If fundamental analysis is truly ineffective, why have fundamental analysis existed for so many centuries? If technical analysis is truly ineffective, why are technical analysis and chartists still paid so much money in Wall Street? If fundamental analysis is ineffective, why does earnings releases move stocks so much? If technical analysis is ineffective, why do resistance levels and support levels prove to be accurate time and time over again? What if both methods are truly one and the same thing?

Yes, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are really two sides of the same coin, two perspectives on the same issue and two components making up a full picture.

Fundamental analysis explores 2 main issues; Earnings expectation and Growth expectations. The ultimate objective of fundamental analysis is to arrive at an opinion on the future profitability of a company and how much that profitability is worth in terms of stock price. The higher the earnings expectations and growth expectations, the higher the stock price ought to be. However, scientific as this may be, it is missing the final element that moves stocks... investor sentiments or how much investors think that earnings and growth expectation is ultimately worth! Technical analysis reflects the final verdict of investors towards that earnings and growth expectation. Without this final verdict, all analysis is meaningless. However, this final verdict may not always be inline with your own expectation towards the future profitability and growth of a company. Because both fundamental analysis and technical analysis is really the same thing, a decision to buy or sell a stock should take both views into consideration. When fundamental analysis revealed a potential rise in earnings, does the charts support that view? Have investors started moving ahead of the news? Does the trend so far reveal that investors are not impressed with that outlook at all? When a reversal signal turns up in technical analysis, is there any fundamental reasons driving that reversal? Is it just nothing but an unsustainable exuberance not supported by fundamental reasons?

That being said, when a company's fundamental outlook is continuously strong over a long period of time, technicals will also reflect that same long term strength through long term bullish trend and patterns.

In this sense, fundamental analysis and fundamental analysis are truly one and the same and nobody can do with one and not the other. It is like examining the physical attributes of a boxer versus his track record. You cannot have a complete picture of the capabilities of a boxer unless you take both views into consideration.

Because fundamental analysis and technical analysis are 2 different views on the same subject, they both have certain strengths over each other.

Fundamental analysis is capable of telling if a company has long term growth potential and whether or not its stocks are worth while long term investments. However, fundamental analysis is incapable of predicting or explaining short term trends of a few days that are not caused by fundamental company events like earnings release. Technical analysis on the other hand is capable of telling when prices are out of sorts and when prices shouldn't rise or fall anymore using support and resistance levels. Such knowledge is extremely useful in trading short term trends. However, technical analysis has proved to be ineffective at predicting long term price actions as business fundamentals does change significantly from year to year.

I hope I have resolved the feud between fundamental and technical analysis today and that you have understood that both are really the same thing, talking about the same thing while providing a slightly different perspective. I hope you will embrace both methods from now on and use the right bias on the right investment horizon and outlook. I personally use both analysis in my stock options trading and I would turn the bias towards technical analysis in my short term trading System">short term trading System, the Star trading system.




Jason Ng is the Founder and Chief Option Strategist of Masters 'O' Equity Asset Management ( MastersoEquity.com ) and author of OptionTradingPedia.com . He is a fund manager specializing in options trading and his revolutionary Star Trading System has helped thousands.

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Saturday, August 28, 2010

The Power of Fundamental Stock Analysis Part One

If you are considering stock market investment you'll definitely want to take a closer look at Fundamental Analysis. As a stock investor there are many tools available to help you decide which stock you're going to buy, in today's computer age technical analysis has become more popular but it will pay you not to overlook the more well-established system known as Fundamental Analysis. Fundamental analysis, that is to say examining what are known as the key ratios of the stock provide a method of quickly showing how much the stock is worth and how well the company is performing compared to other companies in the same sector.

The objective of fundamental analysis is to help you understand how much money the company you are considering investing in is making and how those earnings are expected to change in the future. Like all things company earnings are always subject to speculation, if the company has a good earnings record this will help to give investors confidence in the stock because they will expect the stock price and the companies dividends to rise as the earnings rise.

All listed companies must report their earnings on a regular basis, these reports are subject to detailed analysis and if the figures do not meet the market's expectations there are bound to be a downturn in the company's stock price.

Fundamental analysis relies on a detailed examination of the companies financial statements. Every company that is traded on the stock market must publish these financial statements regularly, in the past it was normal to produce these as just printed reports but today they are also readily available on the Internet via the company's website and as such are easily accessible to anybody who is considering investment in the company's stock. All financial statements include a least the following items, an income statement, the company balance sheet, the external auditors report, cash flow statement, a description of the company's business activities and the expectation of earnings for the next financial year.

Before we cover the actual key ratios lets consider the individual parts of a typical company financial statement.

Perhaps the most important part of the financial statement is the external auditors report. The company's auditor is always an independent certified public accountancy firm which is required to examine the company's financial reports to establish if the information provided in the financial statement is a true and accurate description of the company's earnings. The Independent auditors report expresses the auditors opinion of the accuracy of the information in the financial statement, any financial statement that does not have an independent auditor's report is worthless because obviously it could contain misleading information which could result in a bad investment decision. It must be remembered that an independent auditor's report is not an absolute guarantee of the accuracy of that report but without it the financial statement has no credibility at all.

The company balance sheet is also an important source of information for fundamental analysis, the balance sheet is actually a snapshot of the company's financial affairs at a given point in time. The balance sheet will allow you to see the interrelationship between the company's assets that is to say property and equipment inventory and cash against its liabilities and the retained equity in the company.

The company's income statement will show information about income generated by the company's activities and the costs which were incurred in generating that income this will allow you to establish the earnings per share on both the gross and net basis.

And finally we come to the statement of cash flow this is rather like the income statement but it gives a more detailed picture of how the money flows into or out of the company over the financial year. The income statement shows money coming in from sales, stockstackup.com" title="investments">investments in the company, or borrowing and how the company handles its expenses. It is a very valuable indication of how the company is managed on a day-to-day basis.

In part two of this article I will go into greater detail about key financial ratios that are use in fundamental analysis and how they can help you in arriving at stock investment decisions.




For more vital information about Fundamental Analysis visit http://www.stockinvestingforbeginner.com/

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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Stock Analysis - Technical vs. Fundamental

There are two different methods most stock traders employ to analyze a stock as a potential investment and each is a different from the other as night and day. In fact, the subject has caused more than one healthy debate between successful traders and investors and will likely continue do so for quite some time. Fundamental vs. technical analysis, which is the best way to trade? First, I have to admit I am a devout technical analyst. I write about the subject and own a company who publishes a technical analysis stock stockstackup.com" title="Trading Course">Trading Course. I didn't start out in the stock market that way but gradually came to the conclusion I understood technical criteria better than fundamental criteria. Even though I believe that technical analysis leads to more profit, less loss, and is easier to understand, I do leave room for possibility that there are investors who perform just as well as I do using fundamental analysis.

Fundamental analysis is the study of the financial condition of a publicly traded company. When you visit a financial website such as MSN Money, Yahoo Finance or CBS Market Watch and enter a stock symbol, the information that will be displayed is mostly fundamental criteria. It includes figures such as gross sales, gross profit, sales growth, income growth, net profit margin, debt to equity ratio, institutional analyst recommendations among other various criteria. The fundamental analyst compares these numbers to those of other companies in the same industry group of against the S&P 500 average and decides if the stock is worthy of being added to his of her portfolio.

Many fundamental analysts are buy and hold investors. They're willing to add a stock to their portfolio and wait until the investment matures, which is different than most technical analysts. Fundamental analysts by nature are patient with their investing approach. They may hold an individual stock for years, allowing it time to gain a return (hopefully) and in some cases reap the dividends the stock may or may not pay.

Technical analysts decide which stock they will invest in based on criteria they see on a stock chart. The technical analyst believes that the stock chart also charts the mood of the specific market. To put it another way, the stock chart gives the investor a peek into the market psychology. While large financial institutions and brokerage houses recommend stocks to their customers based on fundamental criteria, they all have traders on the floor who honor technical criteria on a daily trading basis. You can actually watch technical rules being "obeyed" on an intraday chart as the price forms patterns indicating the stock is losing steam or there is strong buying taking place. These intraday patterns are traded by stockstackup.com" title="day trader">day traders but the same rules apply to daily charts and allow the technical analyst the ability to read market psychology in charts of many time frames.

The technical analyst uses the daily chart to forecast his or her trades. The different continuation, topping, bottoming and reversal patterns are to numerous to list in this article. Most technical traders buy on a price breakout and sell on the first pullback or consolidation in price. The breakout is forecast on the chart and the entry is strategically timed to a precise buy point. It takes some study and training but the rewards are great and quick.

The technical analyst is usually impatient and not willing to keep their money tied up in a stock for very long. Most usually hold for less than a couple of months, with a couple of weeks being more common. The trade is placed only to "ride the wave" and the position is exited once the wave is over.

If you haven't begun to trade stocks and are thinking about starting, you need to decide which way YOU feel comfortable analyzing and trading stocks. It's a personal decision based on what you feel comfortable with. Technical traders are usually a little more aggressive in their approach to trading stocks than their fundamental counterparts. Either way is ok as long as you are willing to put the time into studying your craft.




B.M. Davis is an active trader and publisher of the Market Master Stock Trading Course. If you would like more information about candlestick charting or stock trading please visit http://www.market-masters.com

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