Basic Stock Charting Patterns - Trends, Floor, Ceilings and Other Patterns of Technical Analysis

I don't do a great deal with charting. While there are some who search through charts for price patterns, I've found that charting is useful for telling you where you are, but not that useful for telling you where you are going. Nevertheless, every investor should know the basics about charting, if for no other reason than to understand what other people are looking at and the predict their reactions. Here are some of the basic definitions that every stock investor should know:

Chart: A chart is a graph of price over a period of time. The most basic form of a chart is a line chart, which consists of a plot of the closing prices. A more useful chart is a OHLC chart, which plots the Open, High, Low, and close for each day (or week or month). This chart is more useful since it shows where a stock traded during the period, rather than just a point in time, which tells more of the story. Candlestick charts, which as colored or open boxes depending on whether the stock moved up or down during the day, are another refinement.

time frame: There are different time frames, which correspond to the length of time represented by each point on the chart. For example, a chart that plotted a point each 15 minutes, and spanned a day, would be a very short-term chart. A chart that plotted one point per day and extended a couple of months would be a short-term chart. An intermediate-term chart would have points that represented a few days or so and cover several months. Finally, a chart where each point was a week or a month, and covered a few years to a decade, would be a long-term chart. I'm typically concerned with the long-term trends, so I look at charts of several months to a few years or a decade in length.

Trend: A trend is the current movement of a stock. A stock will always be in an uptrend, downtrend, or drawing lines. We'll cover these in a later post.

pattern (Bull or Bear): Certain patterns are commonly seen that foreshadow specific price movements. One that would indicate the stock is ready to go up would be a "bull pattern"; one that indicated a decline in price a "bear pattern".

floor or support level: A price at which the stock traded at for a while before moving higher. When the stock hits that price, it tends to not move below it.

ceiling: The opposite of a floor. Here the stock price is below the ceiling, and it may be difficult for the stock to get above the ceiling.

moving average: An average in which the closing price for a specified number of days are added together and averaged. Each day a new day is added and the earliest day in the average dropped. Moving averages tend to smooth out the price of a stock and provide a clearer picture of what is happening. Also, a stock above its average may be pricey, one below it inexpensive. A 90-day moving average is a commonly used average.

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8 Commodity Stock Trading Application Rules

Some commodity Stock Trading Application rules are made to be broken, but when you`re trading, there are some rules are meant to be followed. Here some of the Stock Trading Application rules that I consider the most important principles of trading. I suggest that you make a copy of them and place them in your trading diary or tape them to your desk, so that you`ll always remember to follow them.

Commodity Stock Trading Application No. 1 ~ Cut Your Losses

Never let your losses get out of hand. It is one of the most important things that you can do to ensure you are successful. Losses can devastate you emotionally and will diminish your trading capital, violating your primary aim in trading - to preserve your capital. If you could get successful traders to credit their success to one thing, many would select this rule.

Commodity Stock Trading Application No. 2 ~ Let Your Profits Run

Hand in hand with the first rule is the second ~ let your profits run. Your trading plan will probably produce profitable trades less than half of the time. Therefore, you need to make sure that when you do achieve a profit, you get the most out of the move in the stock. Some up trends take time to develop; and you must wait until you see the high in the stock achieved and then the reverse in direction before you consider closing the position. Until you see the reverse, you won`t know if the stock is going to go any higher. Remember, your few profits must outweigh many losses.

Commodity Stock Trading Application No. 3 ~ Follow the Trend

In trading, trends are the only friends you have. Always trade with the trend! Never attempt to identify the bottom in the stock or time your entry using that approach. If you do, you can be run over as the stock continues on its way down. There is often great force and momentum at work when a stock is trending in either direction, particularly when the trend is down. Don`t try to fight it. Why buy something that is heading in the wrong direction on the hope that it will turn around and head back up past your entry level?

Commodity Stock Trading Application No. 4 ~ Don`t Overtrade

Don`t trade for the sake of trading. Never force the action. If you are not comfortable with any of your potential trades then don`t open a position. It is a mature decision to do this when conditions aren`t quite right, and you won`t be trading for the wrong reasons.

Commodity Stock Trading Application No. 5 ~ Never Act on a Tip

Who hasn`t reacted to a tip they heard from somebody about a stock that is apparently going to the moon and never coming back? Never act on a tip; tips are rarely good. The worst part of tips is that you will probably stick with the trade even when the security starts to head against you. You will be more inclined to break the commodity Stock Trading Application rules and not cut your loss because of the 'reliable` information you have heard about the stock`s future. Instead of trading on tips, have confidence in your own plan.

Commodity Stock Trading Application No. 6 ~ Always Trade Liquid stocks

It is a horrible feeling of helplessness to be stuck with a stock that you need to exit from because there aren`t enough buyers in the market. Liquidity is the ability to trade in a security without adversely affecting its market price. Always demand liquidity in your securities before you consider trading them, and you`ll never be stuck with a stock.

Commodity Stock Trading Application No. 7 ~ Keep Positions Small

When trading, you need to understand and manage risk to achieve long term success. If you want to completely avoid risk, then don`t commit any money to any financial market. If you are prepared to take some risk, then managing and controlling that risk will be crucial. One of the best ways to do this is to ensure you have, and use, a good position sizing model. This model will ensure that you don`t commit too much of your trading capital to a single position, allowing you to spread your risk across several positions.

Commodity Stock Trading Application No. 8 ~ Don`t Buy Something Because it Looks Cheap

If a stock is cheap, there is probably a very good reason for it. Only consider stocks that are trending up. There is no such thing as a stock that might start to trend up any day. Even if a stock looks cheap, who is to say that it will not get cheaper? It may never increase in price again.

With these commodity Stock Trading Application rules, a solid trading system, and good money management, you can become a successful trader. Remember these commodity Stock Trading Application rules and use them. Particularly when you don`t want too.

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The Best Time to Invest in Stocks

Put away your calculators and software programs if you want to get the feel for stock market timing. You'll never beat the other players if you follow the herd.

Above all else realize that all you need to do to win at the stock game is to stay one step ahead of the competition. You can do this only if you concentrate on understanding human nature and human emotions.

If you honestly believe that on a day to day basis that the stock market is rational, you haven't played the game long enough or been paying attention to the reality of the game. If you actually believe that someone can sell you a program that guarantees success in the stock market, it's time to change your thinking and refocus your train of thought.

The best time to invest in stocks is when there is "blood in the streets", and fear dominates investor behavior. The problem is that as an investor you are human as well, and are subject to the same emotions as everyone else.

What do investors do when overcome with fear? They capitulate ... they sell their stocks. This might have sounded academic before September of 2008, but if you were paying attention to the markets between September 2008 and March 2009, you saw investor fear in action.

So, how do you know when the best time to invest is?

If you are a serious stock investor, you were fearful in the above time period as well. I've been playing the game since 1973, and I felt it. Lucky for me, I had little invested in stocks in September 2008. In the months that followed I was waiting for the right time to start buying.

The best time to buy is when you are scared, but you are firmly convinced that the market (most investors) has truly overreacted to a bad situation. When folks are fleeing for the exits in panic ... selling indiscriminately ... it's time to step up to the plate and start to buy.

Don't go all or nothing. Keep some powder dry and invest in steps. You will probably never in your investing life fire one shot and hit the market bottom.

Think back to early 2009. Stocks had been falling for months on bad (horrific) news. Then, in mid-February, selling intensified and stocks started to fall like a rock. This was your invitation to start buying.

If you have always viewed the stock market from afar with nothing invested and nothing to lose, you've never felt the fear that overwhelms many investors in times of market stress.

Take it from someone who has been directly involved in three scary bear markets (1973-1974 ... 2000-2002 ... 2007-2009). Fear of losing your money is real and greatly influences investor behavior.

In times of great uncertainty think with your head and do not make investment decisions out of emotion. The best time to invest in stocks is when the heavy selling is at a climax. Shortly thereafter, all who were fearful enough to sell already have, and rational investors are starting to rush in to buy at bargain prices.

When buying and greed take control, prices go up and those who are still in the game make money. Then it becomes a matter of someday determining the best time to sell, because every market trend comes to an end. 

A retired financial planner, James Leitz has an MBA (finance) and 35 years of investing experience. For 20 years he advised individual investors, working directly with them helping them to reach their financial goals.

Jim is the author of a complete investor guide, Invest Informed, designed for average investors or would-be investors of all levels of financial background and experience. To learn more about investments and investing and his new financial guide go to http://www.investinformed.com

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Penny Stocks Ready to Breakout - What to Look For

Believe it or not, penny stock trading can be boring. Not all of these types of equities spike sharply up or down as a constant. Some stocks can trade in a sideways trading range for multiple months. Not exactly what people expect from stockstackup.com" title="penny stock">penny stocks right? People expect a boom or bust type result most of the time.

The trick to finding stockstackup.com" title="penny stock">penny stocks ready to breakout (to the upside) is to use technical analysis of the chart, along with some research of message board activity of a specific stock. Let's look at a few points of each shall we?

Technical Analysis of the chart (things to look for):

• Noticeable volume increases over 1-3 trading days
  
  


• Slight closing or intraday price increases over previous highs
  
  


• Buy indicators such as the parabolic sar indicate that an uptrend is starting
  
  


• 20 and 50 moving averages cross upward to confirm an breakout is imminent
  
  


• Look for how the stock performed on other breakouts within the last several years to gauge expectations of where to sell or take profits
  
  


• Down trend lines broken to suggest that new bullish buyers are entering the stock

Message board activity:

• Big increase in number of posts
  
  


• Message board posts lay out bullish arguments
  
  


• Lack of coherent "basher" personalities, since they are detrimental to the confidence of the traders who are bullish
  
  


• Absence of personalities often associated with shady pink sheet stocks that perform poorly

Now I realize I did not go into great detail on some of these points, but you get the basic idea. If you are familiar with some of popular penny stock message boards, whether it be ihub or yahoo finance you will know what to look for. If you are not familiar with the jargon I used to describe the technical analysis of the charts, I would recommend going to http://stockcharts.com and absorbing the free information they have there, it's really not as hard to learn as you may imagine it to be.

I use these strategies and others that I find to be effective when I issue penny stock recommendations to subscribers of Microcapmilloinaires.com. It can be time consuming to monitor the market for these types of breakout setups, but it is worth it when you hit a couple big winners that can yield over 100 percent profits.

Written By Matt Morris, Editor of Microcapmillionaires.com the best penny stock newsletter in existence. I am one of the few penny-newsletter-guys that do not accept compensation to "pump" penny stocks. Sign up for 3 free Penny Stock Picks here.

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The Best Way to Play the Stock Market

If you want to play the stock market start by earmarking a sum of money for that purpose and open a separate account with a major discount broker. Come up with a simple system for recording each stock transaction so you can tell at a glance what you hold, what you bought and sold, and where you stand for the year.

Now that you are organized and set up to play, there are some rules or guidelines that you should be aware of. Investors who play the stock market and win don't agree on everything, but there are some things that many of the winners do agree on.

Here's the best way to play the stock market based on the best advice I have run across over the past 35 years. Remember, in this game nothing is guaranteed, but the rewards can be huge if you are good at it.

1. Do not day trade in this account. stockstackup.com" title="day trading">day trading is a game of its own, played by those who trade very often and close out positions in order to pick up as little as a few cents a share within a few minute or hours.

2. Limit your holdings to about a dozen different stocks. If you own too many different issues you are likely to just duplicate the results of the market in general. This is not your objective when you play the stock market ... you should be trying to beat the socks off the market averages.

3. Watch your holdings closely. Once again, this is difficult if you own more than a dozen different stocks.

4. Hold your winners, and cut your losses by taking a small loss on the losers. Few REAL professionals disagree with this basic principle. If only one-half of your stock picks turn out to be winners, your gains will outweigh your small losses.

5. Don't try to catch a falling knife. In other words, do not buy a stock when its price is in a free-fall. Momentum is a fact of life in the stock market. As in physics, an object in motion tends to stay in motion until acted upon by an outside force. Wait until market forces halt the downward slide in stock price before you buy.

6. Sell a stock as soon as it fails to keep up with the market averages. If the market in general is moving up with conviction and one of your stocks is not, get rid of it.

7. Give ETFs serious consideration. This is the best and easiest way to play a sector or segment of the stock market. Why sweat over which financial, foreign or basic materials stock etc. to jump on at an instant's notice? Buy the group, and sort out the winners and losers later if time is a factor.

Above all else, keep a firm grasp on reality. You are playing this game in order to win big. I don't care what else you have accomplished in life, you will find this adventure more challenging than you anticipated.

FEW folks beat the market. Few professionals do either.

That's why I recommended up front that you earmark a sum of money in a separate account to pursue this game. Do not bet the farm on your dreams of beating the market, because it's a tough nut to crack. Consider the money in this account as "play the stock market" money. In other words, earmark an amount of money you could live without when you open this account.

Managing your serious money ... your retirement nest egg ... is a totally different game and different rules apply. Personally, I play both ways and have for years; but I make every effort to keep the two in perspective.

A retired financial planner, James Leitz has an MBA (finance) and 35 years of investing experience. For 20 years he advised individual investors, working directly with them helping them to reach their financial goals.

Jim is the author of a complete investor guide, Invest Informed, designed for average investors or would-be investors of all levels of financial background and experience. To learn more about investments and investing and his new financial guide go to http://www.investinformed.com

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The Disadvantages of Technical Analysis For Stock Trading

Many traders use technical analysis for trading stocks. Technical analysis is very attractive because it is based on math and statistics, thus giving the illusion of accuracy and predictability. However, technical analysis has several flaws and traders should be aware of its limitations.

These disadvantages include:

1. At their heart, all technical indicators - no matter how complex - are based on price, which always reflects what has already happened in the market. Thus, technical analysis is reactive - not truly predictive of what will happen.

2. Today's markets are much more chaotic and choppy compared to previous decades. This is because of hedge funds and computerized ultra-stockstackup.com" title="short term trading">short term trading activity. The result is more false signals and ill-formed patterns from technical analysis techniques.

3. The bulk of technical traders still rely on a handful of indicators first created in the 1970's. This results in their overuse and, thus, the markets adjust and render them less effective.

4. The majority of technical traders attempt to do trend-following. While trend following techniques can make big money over time, they have a low accuracy rate and a high draw down (most trades are losses and its not uncommon to be down 50-60% at some point). Most traders can not handle this psychologically. They end up overriding stockstackup.com" title="Trading Signals">Trading Signals and/or switching between systems.

5. Classical trading chart patterns can be found in graphs of non-market related activities, including temperature charts. Also, chart patterns can appear and disappear depending on the scaling of the chart. This strongly suggests that chart patterns are a trick of the human eye and have no predictive value.

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Technical Analysis in Stock Market Trading

The methods used to analyze securities (stocks) and make investment decisions are vast, but tend to fall into one of two categories known as fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis involves researching and evaluating the characteristics of the company including the evaluation of company financial statements in order to approximate the value of a company. Technical analysis, on the other hand, pays no attention to the value of a stock and cares more about price movements based on general market psychology and historical trends.

There are numerous charting indicators available and over time I will attempt to discuss and educate our readers on these types of indicators and how to read them for important data. However, for the scope of today's article, I simply wanted to introduce our readers to the basics of technical analysis and how it can be helpful when completing due diligence on investment or trading opportunities. If you understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis, it can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better trader or investor.

Technical analysis can be defined as a method of evaluating future security prices and market directions based on statistical analysis of variables such as trading volume, price changes, trends, patterns, and formations in charts. These formations within the charts are, as believed by technical analysts, said to be in large part dictated by the psychological makeup of the market.

Through the use of charting, analysts attempt to explain the supply and demand of a security and help in determining the emotions of those in the market. Technical analysis is based on the basic theory that the price of a stock reflects everything that could or has affected a stock. Therefore, fundamental factors as well as economic factors like the overall psychology of the market are all priced into the stock, which leaves only the analysis of supply and demand in predicting the price movement of the forecasted stock.

Analysts believe that future prices are dictated by previously established trends, attributing the repetitive nature of these trends to the basic makeup of the markets psychology. They believe that market participants tend to react in common ways to events within the market, therefore through the use of technical charting, patterns can be used to analyze price movements and understand these trends.

Jennifer Mycock & Branden Moskwa of Tradeopolis.com

Tradeopolis.com, your stock market trading and stock investing resource, with access to articles on Stock market trading and stock investing. Penny stocks to mutual fund investing, tips and secrets and all the latest hot press releases.

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